East Troublesome Fire

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Coordinates: 40°12′04″N 106°14′02″W / 40.201°N 106.234°W / 40.201; -106.234
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East Troublesome Fire
The East Troublesome Fire producing a large column of smoke
Date(s)
  • October 14, 2020 (2020-10-14) –
  • November 30, 2020 (2020-11-30)
  • (48 days)
LocationGrand County & Larimer County, Colorado, United States
Coordinates40°12′04″N 106°14′02″W / 40.201°N 106.234°W / 40.201; -106.234
Statistics
Burned area193,812 acres (78,433 ha; 303 sq mi; 784 km2)
Impacts
Deaths2
Structures destroyed555
Damage
  • $558.7 million
  • (equivalent to about $648.1 million in 2023)
Ignition
CauseHuman-caused
Map
East Troublesome Fire is located in Colorado
East Troublesome Fire
Location of the East Troublesome Fire in Colorado

The 2020 East Troublesome Fire was a massive and destructive wildfire, and the second-largest in the history of the U.S. state of Colorado. Named for the East Fork of Troublesome Creek, close to the fire's point of origin in the Arapaho National Forest, the fire burned 193,812 acres (78,433 ha) between its ignition on October 14, 2020 and its containment on November 30. The fire destroyed 555 structures and killed two people, devastating portions of the community of Grand Lake. The majority of the fire's burned acreage and structural losses accrued on October 21, when the fire burned more than 100,000 acres (40,000 ha) in a single day.

Background[edit]

The period between July 1, 2020 and the East Troublesome Fire's ignition was the driest recorded such period in history at the Grand Lake climate station, where records dated back over a century.[1] The fire also burned through large stands of lodgepole pine affected by bark beetles.[2][3] Estimates of the proportion of trees killed by bark beetles in the area the fire made its unprecedented run through were as high as 70 to 90 percent.[4]

The number of wildfires that have burned areas ≥10,000 acres (4,000 ha) in Colorado has increased dramatically in the 21st century, but the most active months of the year for wildfire activity in the state are typically June and July. The East Troublesome Fire was the third-latest ≥10,000-acre (4,000 ha) fire ever recorded in the state: only the Junkins Fire in 2016 and the Calwood Fire in 2020 ignited later.[4]

Cause[edit]

The East Troublesome Fire's precise cause is not known. It was first detected when an elk hunter noticed a plume of smoke shortly after 12:00 p.m. MDT on Wednesday, October 14, in the wilderness north of Kremmling and reported it to 911.[5] Based on evidence gathered at the fire's origin, U.S. Forest Service investigators determined it was human in origin. Based on the location and time of year of the ignition, "it may have been caused by a hunter or a backcountry camper, and possibly by accident," according to a Forest Service press release issued June 3, 2022. Investigators said they would continue to try to identify the person responsible.[6]

Progression[edit]

During the fire's first week, only 90 or so homes lay under evacuation orders.[4] On October 20, the National Weather Service office for Denver and Boulder issued a red flag warning for the following day, forecasting winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph and relative humidity levels as low as 12%.[4]

On October 21, the fire underwent an unprecedented expansion. The fire crossed Colorado State Highway 125 sometime after 4:00 p.m. on October 21, as firefighters reported a large increase in fire activity. Firefighters arrived at Trail Creek Estates, a rural subdivision in between Highway 125 and Grand Lake, between 5:30 and 6:30 p.m. but found fire activity already too extreme to engage, with crown fires moving through stands of lodgepole pine. They abandoned structure protection efforts and focused on evacuations.[7] By this point, at about 6:00 p.m., the fire had already doubled in size to about 40,000 acres (16,000 ha). The National Weather Service office in Denver/Boulder began to issue civil emergency messages as the fire neared more populated areas. By 5:33 a.m. on October 22 the fire had burned 125,678 acres (50,860 ha).[4]

The East Troublesome Fire producing a pyrocumulus cloud on October 22

Between mid-day on October 21 and the evening of October 22, the fire pushed 25 miles (40 km) east, growing from 19,000 acres (7,700 ha) to more than 170,000 acres (69,000 ha). During this period it generated massive pyrocumulonimbus clouds, which rose to around 45,000 feet (14,000 m) in altitude and generated lightning. In this time the fire grew by more than 6,000 acres (2,400 ha) per hour: the equivalent of 75 standard American football fields every minute.[8] The incident commander, Noel Livingston, described the fire's expansion as "unheard of for a fire in this part of the world in timber".[9] The fire jumped over the Continental Divide, well above tree line, when embers spotted 1.5 miles (2.4 km) from the head of Tonahutu Creek on the west side of the Front Range and ignited a spot fire in the head of Spruce Creek on the east side. The spot fire, which established itself on the northwest side of Mount Wuh, quickly grew and threatened Estes Park.[10][11] Trail Ridge Road through Rocky Mountain National Park became impassable as burned trees fell on the roadway.[12]

Late in the afternoon on Thursday, October 22, a cold frontal passage sharply improved weather conditions on the eastern side of the Continental Divide, subduing the portion of the fire that had led to evacuations in Estes Park earlier in the day.[13] Fuel treatments like thinning and prescribed burns also aided firefighters in their efforts to stop the fire's progression towards Estes Park, in concert with the better weather conditions.[14]

The East Troublesome Fire was declared 100 percent contained on November 30, 2020.[15] The effort to contain the fire cost $15.7 million, according to the National Interagency Coordination Center.[16]: 7 

Effects[edit]

The fire caused two fatalities. Lyle Hileman, 86, and Marylin Hileman, 84, lived outside Grand Lake and chose not to evacuate. They were killed when their property burned during the fire's major expansion on October 21.[17]

The fire destroyed 555 structures, including 366 residences.[4] The Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association estimated that insured losses from the fire reached $543 million, stemming from approximately 1,600 homeowner and auto insurance claims. This made the East Troublesome Fire the most expensive wildfire in Colorado history until the Marshall Fire in Boulder County surpassed it just over a year later.[18]

The East Troublesome Fire was the largest fire in Rocky Mountain National Park's 107-year-long history, burning more than 22,000 acres (8,900 ha) inside the park's boundaries. The fire destroyed multiple buildings and facilities in the park, including 18 historic buildings at a seasonal housing complex for park employees and three RV sites.[19][20]

A high-severity area of the burn scar, south of Willow Creek Pass on Colorado State Highway 125

Wildfire spread modeling[edit]

The East Troublesome Fire led to advancements in wildfire spread prediction. The fire's dramatic expansion on October 21 vastly exceeded the predicted spread that computer models used by meteorologists and fire personnel had forecast. A National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) report in 2022 showed that a government dataset called LANDFIRE, which provides much of the data on fuels for fire simulations, contained an outdated model of fuels in the fire area. Between 2016, when the data for LANDFIRE was collected, and the fire four years later, forests in the path of the East Troublesome Fire had experienced widespread tree mortality from bark beetles. The discovery of the mismatch led NCAR scientists to develop a program using a machine learning model and satellite imagery to generate quicker and more accurate fuel models, and correspondingly more accurate fire spread predictions.[21][22]

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ Colorado Climate Center [@ColoradoClimate] (October 21, 2020). "The Grand Lake climate station (roughly 15 miles from where the #EastTroublesomeFire has exploded today) has had just 0.94" of precip since July 1, compared to the normal of 7.07". The next driest year over this period was 1915 with 2.34". #cowx #drought" (Tweet). Archived from the original on October 21, 2020. Retrieved December 18, 2022 – via Twitter.
  2. ^ Freedman, Andrew (October 22, 2020). "Colorado wildfire grows by at least 140,000 acres in a day, forcing hundreds to flee". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on February 7, 2023. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  3. ^ Calma, Justine (October 27, 2020). "Wildfires tear through Colorado's beetle-bitten forests". The Verge. Archived from the original on March 22, 2023. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  4. ^ a b c d e f NWS Denver/Boulder, CO (December 28, 2020). "East Troublesome Fire, Northern Colorado". Fire Season 2020 Storymap. Archived from the original on December 14, 2022. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  5. ^ Markus, Ben; Penney, Veronica (November 11, 2021). "How humans start most of Colorado's wildfires — and get away with it". Colorado Public Radio. Archived from the original on July 11, 2023. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  6. ^ Nicholson, Kieran (June 3, 2022). "2020's East Troublesome fire: Investigators say state's second largest blaze in history human caused". The Denver Post. Archived from the original on December 14, 2022. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  7. ^ Paul, Jesse (November 2, 2020). ""Worse than anything you could have imagined": How the East Troublesome fire became so destructive". The Colorado Sun. Archived from the original on June 3, 2023. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  8. ^ Woodruff, Chase (October 23, 2020). "East Troublesome Fire's 'unprecedented' blowup a sign of Colorado's grim climate future". Colorado Newsline. Archived from the original on May 5, 2023. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  9. ^ Nicholson, Kieran; Bradbury, Shelly; Aguilar, John; Tabachnik, Sam (October 22, 2020). "East Troublesome fire explodes to 170,000 acres, forcing evacuations around Grand Lake and Estes Park". The Denver Post. Archived from the original on December 25, 2022. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  10. ^ Gabbert, Bill (October 24, 2020). "Strong winds Saturday could push East Troublesome Fire closer to Estes Park". Wildfire Today. Archived from the original on December 14, 2022. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  11. ^ "Cameron Peak and East Troublesome Fires - Rocky Mountain National Park". nps.gov. National Park Service. July 9, 2021. Archived from the original on April 1, 2023. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  12. ^ de Yoanna, Michael (October 23, 2020). "Rocky Mountain National Park Hit By Wildfires On Both Sides Of Continental Divide". KUNC. Archived from the original on January 28, 2023. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  13. ^ Ingold, John; Paul, Jesse (October 23, 2020). ""We expect an active fire": Weather is forecast to fuel East Troublesome fire on Friday". The Colorado Sun. Archived from the original on February 12, 2024. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
  14. ^ Bloom, Matt; Piccone, Ashley (June 24, 2021). "Two Megafires Charred Parts Of Northern Colorado In 2020. The Recovery Will Take Years". KUNC. Archived from the original on December 16, 2022. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  15. ^ Nicholson, Kieran (December 1, 2020). "The East Troublesome fire is 100% contained". The Denver Post. Archived from the original on December 14, 2022. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  16. ^ Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2020 (PDF) (Report). National Interagency Coordination Center. 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on July 15, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  17. ^ Spells, Alta; Maxouris, Christina (October 24, 2020). "An elderly couple refused to leave the home they loved and were killed in the East Troublesome Fire". CNN. Retrieved December 14, 2022.
  18. ^ "Wildfire and Insurance". Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association. Archived from the original on May 20, 2023. Retrieved August 1, 2023.
  19. ^ "Proposal to Construct New Housing Destroyed by the East Troublesome Fire". National Park Service. Retrieved December 14, 2022.
  20. ^ "Rocky Mountain National Park Rallies to Recover in the Aftermath of the East Troublesome Fire". National Park Service. Archived from the original on February 13, 2024. Retrieved April 22, 2024.
  21. ^ Snider, Laura (March 31, 2022). "Scientists use AI to update data vegetation maps for improved wildfire forecasts". NCAR & UCAR News. Retrieved December 16, 2022.
  22. ^ Reppenhagen, Cory (June 29, 2022). "Spread prediction for 2020 East Troublesome Fire shorted by inaccurate beetle kill data". KUSA. Retrieved December 16, 2022.
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