Climate change and crime

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Research suggests a complex relationship between climate change and crime. As global temperatures rise, some studies indicate an increase in crime rates, especially violent crimes.[1] However, the evidence is mixed, with some studies finding only weak or inconsistent correlations. Factors such as temperature volatility,[2] seasonal variations,[3] and geographical context[1] play a role in influencing crime rates.

Climate change involves long-term alterations in weather patterns, primarily due to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes. It leads to global warming, erratic weather, and an increase in extreme weather events. Crime involves illegal activities that breach laws, typically divided into property crimes (e.g., theft and burglary) and violent crimes (e.g., assault and murder). Additionally, environmental crimes, such as illegal waste dumping and unauthorized emissions, can contribute to climate change, creating additional factors that may influence crime patterns.[4]

Theories linking temperature and crime[edit]

Criminologists and researchers have proposed various theories to explain the potential relationship between rising temperatures and crime rates. These theories explore different mechanisms through which temperature might influence crime.

Temperature-aggression theory[edit]

The temperature-aggression theory, also known as the biological theory, suggests that higher temperatures can lead to increased levels of stress and irritability in individuals, potentially resulting in more aggressive behaviors.[5] According to this theory, as temperatures rise, people may become more prone to frustration and anger, which could contribute to an increase in violent crimes such as assaults and homicides.[4][5] Several studies have explored this concept, examining whether heat-induced aggression correlates with higher rates of violent crime.[2][4] One approach to temperature aggression theory involves examining historical data to identify correlations between heat waves or abnormally high temperatures and increased rates of violent crimes.[2] Researchers look for patterns in crime data across different seasons or during specific weather events to determine whether there is a significant increase in violent crime rates during hotter periods.[2] In doing so, researchers also consider various variables, such as time of day, location, and demographics, to control for external influences and to gain a clearer understanding of the temperature-aggression link.[2][6]

Routine activity theory[edit]

A graphical model of the Routine activity theory (developed by Marcus Felson and Lawrence E. Cohen).

Routine activity theory states that crime is more likely to occur when three conditions are met: a motivated offender, a suitable target, and a lack of capable guardianship.[7] Warmer weather often leads to more outdoor activities and social interactions, creating more opportunities for motivated offenders to find suitable targets where there is little or no guardianship.[1][8] This theory suggests that during warmer periods, with more people engaging in outdoor activities, there may be an increased likelihood of criminal activities such as theft and burglary.[1][9] Routine activity theory does not imply that higher temperatures directly cause crime, but it emphasizes that environmental factors, such as weather, can affect human behavior and create conditions conducive to criminal activity.

Geographic location, urban or rural environments, and community infrastructure can all influence how routine activity theory applies to crime rates.[8][7] In urban settings, the increased density of people during warmer weather can create more chances for criminal behavior.[9] In contrast, rural areas might have different patterns due to variations in social interactions and community structures.[2][9]

Temperature and crime studies[edit]

Graph showing the relationship between temperature and murder and suicide rates from 1899.
Land-ocean temperature index from 1880 to present. The solid black line is the global annual mean temperature showing the overall increase and variability in temperature (created by NASA).

Numerous studies have examined the relationship between temperature and crime, yielding varied results:

  • A study investigating the "climate change-temperature-crime hypothesis" across 15 U.S. cities over a 14-year period found that most correlations between temperature and crime were insignificant, which the researchers said suggested that other social, economic, or environmental factors might be more influential.[1]
  • One study looked at the impact of temperature and precipitation on crime in St. Louis, Missouri from 1990 to 2009.[6] The study concluded that increased temperature anomalies lead to an increase in monthly crime rates. In particular, it found a positive correlation between violent crimes, like aggravated assaults, higher temperatures, and a shorter rainy season.[6] They concluded this relationship was mild but they found a strong positive relationship between the temperature anomalies during El Nino/La Nina cycles and civil conflict.[6]
  • Another study examined annual temperatures and crime rates in the U.S., finding a positive correlation with certain crime types, such as assault and robbery, while other types, like murder, showed no significant relationship.[10]

Resource scarcity and crime[edit]

One study investigated the effects of rainfall fluctuations on dowry-related deaths in India.[11] The researchers concluded that a one standard deviation decrease in annual rainfall from the local mean is associated with a 7.8% increase in reported dowry deaths.[11] Wet shocks, or periods of excessive rainfall, reportedly have no significant impact on dowry deaths.[11] Additionally, the study found a deficit in rainfall is associated with a 32% increase in domestic violence incidents.[11] They state in their report that this may indicate a possible connection between economic stress due to poor agricultural yields during droughts and higher crime rates, particularly domestic abuse and dowry-related violence.[11] While dry periods are correlated with increased domestic violence and kidnapping/abduction cases in the study, they do not significantly affect burglary and robbery rates.[11]

Environmental crimes[edit]

Environmental crimes, such as illegal waste dumping, deforestation, and unauthorized emissions of pollutants, contribute to climate change by accelerating global warming.[12] This environmental degradation can indirectly lead to an increase in violent crime rates.[4] Nicolette Pellegrino, an environmental law professor, suggests that rising temperatures and natural disasters— consequences of climate change—are associated with a higher incidence of violent crimes.[4] She states that this connection could be due to several factors. Natural disasters can lead to increased social disruption, economic instability, and resource scarcity, all of which may contribute to heightened stress and conflict within communities, potentially leading to a rise in violent crime.[4] The resulting environmental degradation might push vulnerable communities toward poverty and instability, potentially contributing to conditions that foster violent crime.[4]

Policy measures[edit]

Protestors at the Greenpeace Climate March from 2015 in Madrid.

To address the link between environmental crimes and climate change, some strategies have been proposed. These include advocacy and education to raise public awareness about the impact of climate change on violent crime rates.[4] Organizations like Greenpeace and initiatives such as Earth Day work to promote sustainability and educate people about climate change.[4] Increasing sanctions for regulated or criminal activities contributing to climate change and holding individuals accountable for environmental wrongdoing are among the suggested solutions.[4]

Geographic context and crime[edit]

Geographic variations play a role in the relationship between climate change and crime, as different regions may exhibit unique crime patterns.[10][13] Factors such as climate, urbanization, and socioeconomic conditions can influence how weather-related changes affect crime rates.[13]

A study focusing on North Bay, Ontario, a smaller urban area with a population of about 50,000, examined the impact of weather variables on crime rates in a smaller urban area.[13] The study found that temperature influenced the distribution of thefts, while assaults were positively correlated with temperature.[13] Break and enters were more influenced by calendar events, and domestic disputes were more frequent on weekends.[13] This highlights the importance of considering all sizes of urban areas and suburban areas when studying the relationship between weather and crime.

Socioeconomic conditions with climate and crime[edit]

Socioeconomic conditions can play a role in crime patterns and how communities are effected by climate change.[13] Regions with higher poverty rates or greater economic instability may experience more crime, which could also be exacerbated by climate change's impact on local economies since people in poverty are often more affected by climate change due to limited resources, reduced access to essential services, and greater vulnerability to extreme weather events, which can exacerbate these existing socioeconomic inequalities.[13][14] Additionally, climate change can lead to resource scarcity, disrupted agricultural practices, and increased migration, all of which can contribute to heightened social tensions and crime.[4]

Seasonal variations and crime[edit]

Seasonal variations also influence crime patterns.[3] Changes in weather and temperature across seasons can lead to shifts in social behavior, which may influence the occurrence and types of crime.[3] As climate change causes more extreme weather fluctuations within the seasons, crime rates are also exhibiting greater variations.[3]

Influence of warmer weather[edit]

Warmer weather is often associated with more people spending time outdoors, engaging in recreational activities, attending events, or simply socializing in public spaces.[2] This increased social activity can lead to a rise in crime rates due to the greater potential for interactions between motivated offenders and suitable targets.[2][3]

A study in Cleveland, Ohio, examined the impact of maximum daily temperature on outdoor violent crime, finding a strong positive correlation between high temperatures and violent crimes occurring outdoors.[2] This study supported and proposed the routine activity theory as an explanation, suggesting that as temperatures rise, there is a greater chance for criminal behavior due to increased outdoor activity and interactions.[2]

Sudden temperature anomalies[edit]

Seasonal variations with climate change can also manifest as sudden temperature anomalies, where temperatures deviate significantly from the seasonal norm.[3] A study that explored sudden temperature anomalies in 28 U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021 found that upward temperature swings correlated with increased robbery and homicide, especially during winter months.[8] The researchers conducting this study suggested that unexpected warmer weather during typically colder seasons can lead to a spike in violent crimes.[8][3]

Seasonal crime patterns[edit]

Different seasons are associated with unique crime patterns.[3] During summer months, when temperatures are typically higher, outdoor activities increase, potentially leading to more crime.[2][3] Crimes like theft, robbery, and assault tend to rise during warmer periods, possibly due to the increased opportunities for crime as more people are outside and engaging in social activities.[10][2][3]

Conversely, colder seasons can lead to a reduction in outdoor activities, which might result in lower crime rates for certain types of crimes.[3] However, as noted in the study of 28 U.S. cities, sudden upward temperature anomalies during winter can disrupt this trend, leading to a rise in violent crime rates.[8]

Impact on specific crime types[edit]

The impact of seasonal variations on crime can also vary depending on the type of crime.[9] Property crimes, such as burglary and theft, might increase during warmer seasons when people are more likely to leave their homes unattended.[3] On the other hand, violent crimes like assault and homicide could see an uptick due to increased social interactions and the potential for confrontations.[2][8]

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d e Lynch, Michael J.; Stretesky, Paul B.; Long, Michael A.; Barrett, Kimberly L. (2020-11-05). "The Climate Change-Temperature-Crime Hypothesis: Evidence from a Sample of 15 Large US Cities, 2002 to 2015". International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 66 (4): 430–450. doi:10.1177/0306624x20969934. ISSN 0306-624X.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Cruz, Erik; D’Alessio, Stewart J.; Stolzenberg, Lisa (2020-06-01). "The Effect of Maximum Daily Temperature on Outdoor Violence". Crime & Delinquency. 69 (6–7): 1161–1182. doi:10.1177/0011128720926119. ISSN 0011-1287.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Linning, Shannon J.; Andresen, Martin A.; Brantingham, Paul J. (2016-03-17). "Crime Seasonality: Examining the Temporal Fluctuations of Property Crime in Cities With Varying Climates". International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology. 61 (16): 1866–1891. doi:10.1177/0306624x16632259. ISSN 0306-624X.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Pellegrino, Nicolette (2018-12-11). "A Gap in Causation? Punishing Polluters for Contributing to Climate Change & Increasing Violent Crime". Pace Environmental Law Review. 35 (2): 375. doi:10.58948/0738-6206.1819. ISSN 0738-6206.
  5. ^ a b Mahendran, Rahini; Xu, Rongbin; Li, Shanshan; Guo, Yuming (September 2021). "Interpersonal violence associated with hot weather". The Lancet Planetary Health. 5 (9): e571–e572. doi:10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00210-2. ISSN 2542-5196.
  6. ^ a b c d Mares, Dennis (2013-01-16). "Climate change and crime: monthly temperature and precipitation anomalies and crime rates in St. Louis, MO 1990–2009". Crime, Law and Social Change. 59 (2): 185–208. doi:10.1007/s10611-013-9411-8. ISSN 0925-4994.
  7. ^ a b "Routine Activity Theory - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics". www.sciencedirect.com. Retrieved 2024-05-07.
  8. ^ a b c d e f Thomas, Christopher; Wolff, Kevin T. (July 2023). "Weird winter weather in the Anthropocene: How volatile temperatures shape violent crime". Journal of Criminal Justice. 87: 102090. doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102090. ISSN 0047-2352.
  9. ^ a b c d Mares, Dennis M.; Moffett, Kenneth W. (2019-05-14). "Climate Change and Crime Revisited: An Exploration of Monthly Temperature Anomalies and UCR Crime Data". Environment and Behavior. 51 (5): 502–529. doi:10.1177/0013916518781197. ISSN 0013-9165.
  10. ^ a b c Rotton, James; Cohn, Ellen G. (November 2003). "Global Warming and U.S. Crime Rates". Environment and Behavior. 35 (6): 802–825. doi:10.1177/0013916503255565. ISSN 0013-9165.
  11. ^ a b c d e f Sekhri, Sheetal; Storeygard, Adam (2014-11-01). "Dowry deaths: Response to weather variability in India". Journal of Development Economics. Special Issue: Imbalances in Economic Development. 111: 212–223. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.09.001. ISSN 0304-3878.
  12. ^ "Environmental Crime". Europol. Retrieved 2024-05-07.
  13. ^ a b c d e f g Castle, Ysabel; Kovacs, John (2023-01-01). "Sizing up Crime and Weather Relationships in a Small Northern City". Canadian Journal of Criminology and Criminal Justice. 65 (1): 60–79. doi:10.3138/cjccj.2022-0037. ISSN 1707-7753.
  14. ^ Mahesh, Lamin, Maria,Sperling, Frank,Liptow, Holger,Mausolf, Elisabeth,Verheyen, Roda,Agrawala, Shardul,Caspary, Georg,Paris, Ramy,Kashyap, Arun,Sharma, Arun,Abeygunawardena, Piya,Vyas, Yogesh,Knill, Philipp,Foy, Tim,Harrold, Melissa,Steele, Paul,Tanner, Thomas,Hirsch, Danielle,Oosterman, Maresa,Rooimans, Jaap,Mathur, Ajay,Debois, Marc,Sharma. "Poverty and climate change : reducing the vulnerability of the poor through adaptation". World Bank. Retrieved 2024-05-07.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
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